The US elections: the closest ever
Text: Andrej Vidmar
The US election is approaching, and this election is so close that it is right to think that this is the most uncertain presidential race ever, or at least in recent history, since 2000 when Al Gore and George Bush Jr ran an incredibly uncertain election race where was decided by only a few thousand votes. This time there are so many parameters that it is difficult to count them, but we will try, through the timeline.
THE SUMMER
For those who went on vacation and turned off their phones, they had quite a surprise upon returning – an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, his defiant fist raised while covered in blood, and the emergence of a new heroic figure who had a clear path ahead in the presidential race against the stumbling Joe Biden. This marked a significant part of the news concerning one of the most important elections in the world.
President Biden’s incredible stubbornness was epic, despite previously swearing he would serve only one term. The Democrats began to panic as a defeat seemed inevitable and depressingly convincing. For weeks, there was talk of who could replace him – many names were mentioned, including familiar figures from two “Democratic dynasties” – Michelle Obama, who immediately denied her candidacy, and Hillary Clinton, who had already lost to Trump but possesses a similar stubbornness to Biden’s.
However, the Democrats quickly pressured Biden into “abdicating in advance” (he remains president until January) and installed Kamala Harris in his place. Even The Economist did not believe she would be his replacement and urged in its articles for Biden to find a replacement. But now Kamala is here – and the Democrats have gained new energy. The Republicans were not thrilled, as old Joe was an easy target due to his gaffes and advanced age – Kamala also has some gaffes but is younger, more vital, smiling, and energetic.
Nevertheless, The Economist notes that she lacks two things: time (only four months until the election) and charisma. She has been known to change her positions based on the situation (sometimes for, sometimes against the death penalty, and so on), and overall, she seems like a party apparatchik, someone who somehow rose to the top in the Communist Party of the USSR thanks to patience, connections, keeping quiet when necessary, and “correct opinions.”
It was up to the Democrats to turn her into a Personality with a capital P, so we’ll see many situations like the one where she plays with children in a school, or on the other hand, Hulk Hogan tearing his shirt in front of Trump. In a word, Trump has always been an entertainer, and Harris had to become less “grey” than she has been remembered as a vice president who knows how to raise donations and step aside for her president.
What interests us in the world is America’s relationship with Russia and Ukraine, or China and Europe, but these are not the main issues for the American voter – Kamala will have to talk much less about Ukraine and much more about immigration (which has reached truly high levels under Biden), inflation (a consequence of COVID-19), crime, as well as the opioid epidemic in the US, infrastructure that is collapsing while China builds hundreds of kilometers of high-speed rail, and similar issues, as well as employment for “ordinary” Americans, for a whole cohort of people like Homer Simpson and Peter Griffin. And she has a “hero” against her – who has created such a cult following that his supporters wear a bandage on their ear!
AUTUMN
From August to September, a lot changed – from the fact that Trump was an “already seen” tenant of the White House, to the fact that Kamala Harris easily and with a smile overtook him in this race. It was as if the Republicans were confused for a couple of weeks – they were sure of victory over the weakened Joe, and then Kamala started to realize her momentum – “Kamalomentum”, as the media called it. She chose the left-wing Democrat from Minnesota, Tim Walz (known for the concept of “Minnesota nice”), who completely surprised the Republicans. But, as we said before, Kamala has to prove that she is not just someone who will “throw platitudes” and take votes for being half Caribbean, half Indian. Now come things like the presentation of the program – and The Economist is much more skeptical than others and claims that promises, although nice, are made lightly.
Then again, America is a strange society – if someone like Kamala promises to cap the cost of medicine for pensioners, it will cause insurance companies to raise the prices of policies so much that pensioners can’t even afford them – which is really incredible for us from Europe, and even for the Canadians in the neighbourhood. But let’s get back to the Republicans. They started with completely unbalanced responses to the sudden change on the part of the Democrats, that they really sounded “weird” as Walz called them. It was as if all the euphoria surrounding the “Messiah Trump” who survived the assassination and his young “Hillbilly” deputy was lost, and then Trump started with “heavy artillery” and promised that he might find a job for Elon Musk at his place. And that’s not all, Robert F. Kennedy joined his camp. A “duel of the titans” has been created, and it is worrying that both voters (Trump’s especially) think that their leader is the Messiah, and that perhaps the defeat of their candidate would be a sign that there is another conspiracy involved, and in this the Trumpites are leading the way. An ominous omen in the western sky.
THE SWING STATES
Since there is a lot of confusion about what is going on with the American election, and everyone is pushing their own millstone, we will use the analysis of The Economist of London, which is, more or less on the Liberal Democrat side and openly dislikes either extreme, so we can consider that the analysis is objective, especially since the demographic division is done down to the smallest elements, gender, skin color, education, sexual orientation, finances, and what not. And it’s no wonder – it’s absolutely irrelevant whether Kamala Harris will win the All-American election with more votes, because the entire country doesn’t vote as one region, but each country for itself, which preserves, in some unusual way, the federal arrangement. This is called the electoral system and there are a total of 538 electors, and each state is “weighted” or has a “weight factor” – as many electors as there are voters. For it to be a tie, it needs to be 269:269, and 270 is enough for victory. In the last election, it was 306:232 for Biden.
But since it has been established since 2000 that the majority of states always vote the same, except for only 7 of them that sometimes vote this way, sometimes that way, those 7 states got the name “swing states”, i.e., “pendulum states”. They are: Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania. When Trump won the election in 2016, he “took” all the states except Nevada. When Biden won the election in 2020, he “took” everything except North Carolina. It wasn’t like that in the past, once presidents could literally take 90% or 95% of the states, like Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1968, or Ronald Reagan in 1980 or 1984. Now most of the states are “cemented”. As things stand now, Kamala leads only in Michigan with 0.5%, while Trump took Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina was already left for him. Pennsylvania, which was tied, slowly passed into Trump’s hands. According to the number of electors, Trump is ahead with 294:244. Most likely, if some drama does not happen, he will be the new-old president.
ENDGAME
What happened? In mid-October, after Kamala’s long lead in the race, Donald Trump overtook Kamala in the polls in just a few days in all key states except Michigan, and even there the margin in her favour is shrinking. There are many reasons for this: Muslims are angry at Democrats for supporting Israel, so they will vote Republican out of spite. Muslims also cannot stand a gender-fluid society and are closer to the “old” West propagated by Trump than to the “new” West propagated by the Democrats. People are unhappy with high immigration, even though the economy is booming. Although student debts are eased and forgiven, young people have nowhere to live if they don’t have a couple of friends to share apartments with, and they work two jobs just for rent. Starting a family is a just a distant imaginary prospect.
Many are tired of Ukraine and Russia and believe that Trump would quickly solve the problem and bring peace, whatever that peace might be. Post-pandemic inflation has eroded the well-being of citizens. Identity issues are a divisive factor. Kamala collected record sums for her campaign, but some analysts say that towards the end of the polls “every beast showed its mark in the snow” and that people finally said what they secretly thought: maybe misogyny is still present and women are not trusted? Maybe Obama has charisma and was the first mixed-race president (half African, half Caucasian), but Kamala (half Afro-Caribbean, half Indian) has no charisma, and just hides behind a cheerful infectious smile? Maybe the citizens are not sure that she has the answers to the questions and that she is just a “cardboard candidate” after all?
Either way, it looks like Donald Trump is headed back to the White House after all, whatever that means. Both for America and for the world. If that happens, let’s remember that he still didn’t cause a single war in his 4 years in power, even though he was surrounded by “hawks” who demanded interventions in Venezuela or Iran, and elsewhere. The world may be changing once again before our eyes.